Description:City Population Dynamics and Sustainable Growth
Abstract:In the social sciences, it has been found that the growth of cities (municipalities, lands, counties, etc.) should be explained by migration, merges, population growth, etc. For example, from literature one can found that the city population distribution in many countries is consistent with a power-law form in which the exponent t is close to 2. This is confirmed qualitatively by data for the populations of various cities during their early histories. The population of essentially every major city grows much faster than country as a whole over considerable time range. However, as cities reach maturity, their growth may slow or their population may even decline for reasons unrelated to preferential migration to still larger cities. The different theories give the growth rates, asymptotics, and distributions of such populations. The potential application (proposed for porting during DEGISCO project) is related with data mining and statistical processing the open-access vast databases of national (State Statistics Committee of Ukraine - http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/) and comparison with the same results on numerous international census and population statistics (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division - http://www.undp.org/popin/wdtrends/urb/furb.htm, USA - www.census.gov, etc.). An important feature of application is comparison of available theories, comparison with observations, and prediction of scenarios of population dynamics and sustainable growth for different national and international regions. CPDynSG will allow to investigate connections between vast volume of experimental data on and found a qualitative correspondence between model predictions and available long time historical data. It will be useful for planning predictable population distribution and sustainable development.
The application was ported within the framework of the DEGISCO project.